Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.084155 2.195393 2.314697 2.453165 2.610773 2.786250 2.998849
2025-05-04 1.955798 2.098607 2.258317 2.452863 2.687440 2.966907 3.334817
2025-05-11 1.868311 2.030676 2.217733 2.453906 2.751761 3.127083 3.659342
2025-05-18 1.775385 1.945885 2.146202 2.405358 2.742729 3.185857 3.852292
2025-05-25 1.716900 1.896399 2.111194 2.395642 2.777712 3.301412 4.141099
2025-06-01 1.665101 1.850905 2.076649 2.381563 2.802442 3.402035 4.424401
2025-06-08 1.618397 1.808586 2.042643 2.364206 2.818852 3.489763 4.703761
2025-06-15 1.592718 1.790663 2.037867 2.384279 2.888303 3.665227 5.185866
2025-06-22 1.533909 1.728143 1.971952 2.315995 2.821742 3.613952 5.212461
2025-06-29 1.505424 1.703087 1.953739 2.312440 2.850935 3.723306 5.605023
2025-07-06 1.463050 1.658553 1.907726 2.266841 2.811783 3.710288 5.720742
2025-07-13 1.447374 1.647920 1.906288 2.284348 2.871640 3.878915 6.337439
2025-07-20 1.442856 1.652603 1.926886 2.336910 2.995826 4.195524 7.586958
2025-07-27 1.421046 1.633475 1.913787 2.338384 3.035512 4.355991 8.521827
2025-08-03 1.400727 1.615522 1.901371 2.339813 3.074789 4.523411 9.692350
2025-08-10 1.367074 1.578609 1.860983 2.296073 3.031038 4.501569 10.020974
2025-08-17 1.346431 1.558665 1.843782 2.287316 3.048807 4.622813 11.275973
2025-08-24 1.325718 1.538000 1.824758 2.274578 3.058037 4.726173 12.688737
2025-08-31 1.305193 1.517018 1.804536 2.258851 3.060285 4.813356 14.293787
2025-09-07 1.295952 1.511144 1.805669 2.277042 3.127631 5.083078 19.083472
2025-09-14 1.263623 1.472723 1.758547 2.215096 3.036050 4.908606 17.662864
2025-09-21 1.249676 1.459438 1.747680 2.211865 3.058898 5.056204 22.194896
2025-09-28 1.225274 1.431177 1.714238 2.170383 3.003751 4.974310 22.260542